The NBA Finals is now a “Casey at the Bat” situation.  There is no joy in Mudville, or at least not in Oakland.  

The Golden State Warriors are down 3-1 to the Toronto Raptors.  It looks bad.  They lost the last two games on their home floor, they are on the brink of elimination, and their best player, Kevin Durant, is out with a strained calf.  

A lot of people are gearing up for a victory parade in Toronto right now.  I say, “Not so fast.”  The Warriors looked bad in Game 3, even worse last night in Game 4, but I still think they will win this series.  Here’s why: 

Kevin Durant

The word is that Durant worked out a couple of days ago and it did not go well.  He wasn’t ready.  He didn’t play in the loss last night.  He hasn’t played yet in this series.  

Now that the Warriors are down 3-1, though, and it’s “win or go home” in Monday night’s Game 5, I figure he will play.  They’ll tape him up, he’ll go out there, and who knows?  

If he can get out there for a while, pose a threat on offense, toss in a few timely buckets, and move a little bit on defense, it will be a big boost for the Warriors.  

Even if he mainly stands in the corner and shoots 3’s, his presence out there will open up a lot more room for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to operate.  Curry and Thompson were smothered by Toronto’s defense all night long last night, mainly because nobody else on the team was an offensive threat. 

You don’t have to guard Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, and Andre Igoudala very closely on the 3-point line.  Last night, their defenders were leaving them alone and ganging up on Curry and Thompson instead.  You can’t do that with Kevin Durant on the floor.

Let’s say KD gets out there, he can’t function at all, and he has to leave the game after a few minutes.  I still think that will help the Warriors’ psyche immensely.  

They will know that he’s there for them.  They will know he’s doing everything in his power to help the team.  And it might be just enough to help them go out there and win a few games for him.  

 

Being down 3-1 is all they needed

The Warriors are bored to tears.  They’ve been bored to tears all year.  By far the most talented and experienced team in the league, they couldn’t be bothered to keep pace with Milwaukee and Toronto for the best regular season record. 

Why didn’t the best team get the best record?  One, they wanted to preserve their health for the playoffs.  And two, they’re bored.

The last several years, they have waged battle with Lebron James in the Finals.  They won the first one.  Lost the second.  Won the third.  Last year, in their fourth meeting, they vanquished the Cavs once and for all in a sweep, sending Lebron to Los Angeles in free agency to start anew.  

People started to whine about the Warriors.  “They’re too good.”  “Durant never should’ve gone there.”  “None of the other teams have a chance.”  “Somebody check their birth certificates.”  “Hey, this isn’t Little League.  It doesn’t matter what their ages are.”  “Oh, okay.” 

People have Warrior fatigue. The Warriors have Warrior fatigue. There’s no Lebron in this year’s Finals. It was all a recipe for a letdown. 

Durant going down with an injury in the conference finals provided a dose of intrigue for a little while. They won some games without him, they were having fun, some of the bench guys got to have a bigger role.

The problem was, people started to become “divisive,” to quote Kevin Durant on Twitter. People said the Warriors were more fun to watch without him. (Confession: I said that as well. Why? That’s a different blog post.) People said they were a better team without him. (I definitely did not say that. That’s insane.)

The journey without KD soon stopped being fun.  None of the Warriors enjoyed seeing their beloved teammate thrown under the bus by fans and media.  It also stopped being fun because the Raptors figured out how to beat them three times in four games.

Down 3-1, it’s about to get fun again for the Warriors.  There’s no margin for error.  They’re walking the tightrope without a net.  

Durant might come back, he might not come back.  But that’s not the central narrative any more.  The central narrative is that the champs are down on the mat with an 8-count. They only have a little bit of time to get back up.  Will they? 

The biggest stars enjoy the biggest moments.  Up 3-1 on the Raptors would not be a big moment for the Warriors, winners of three out of the last four titles and conquerors of Lebron’s Cavs.  Down 3-1?  Now that’s a big moment.  Now we’ll see what they’re capable of.  

Only one team in NBA history has come back from down 3-1 in the Finals to win it all.  More on that in the next section.    

 

Redemption for 2016

2016 was an unbelievable year for the Warriors.  Coach Steve Kerr was away from the team for most of the year after his back surgery. They went on an historic run anyway. 

They won 73 games in the regular season, setting the new league record.  They tore through the playoffs and went up 3-1 on Lebron and the Cavs in the Finals.  

A Finals win would have put them in the pantheon as perhaps the greatest team ever.  It didn’t happen.  

Draymond Green got suspended for Game 5 after punching Lebron James below the belt toward the end of Game 4.  Lebron rallied the Cavs and they swept the next three games to bring home the Larry O’Brien Trophy. 

The Warriors rebounded from that disappointment and beat Lebron in the next two Finals, but they remain the only team in NBA history who has lost the Finals after having a 3-1 lead. 

Now they have a chance to redeem themselves.  They can make Toronto the second team in history to cough up a 3-1 lead in the Finals.

 

The Raptors’ Players

Kawhi Leonard?  He’s amazing.  

But Kyle Lowry?  Fred Van Vleet?  Marc Gasol?  Pascal Siakam?  Serge Ibaka? Danny Green?  

I like each of those players quite a bit, but that’s a championship team?  Really? 

Steph Curry should be able to score at will on Van Vleet and Lowry.  

Klay Thompson should be able to easily win his matchup against Danny Green.  

Demarcus Cousins, Kevon Looney, and Andrew Bogut should be able to collectively match Marc Gasol’s production.  

Andre Igoudala can’t outplay Kawhi Leonard.  Toronto is going to win that matchup every day of the week. But Igoudala provides about the best defense you could hope for against Leonard.  

What about Draymond Green?  As good as Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam are, Draymond Green should be able to dominate them.  He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.  He’s the Warriors’ heart and soul.  He’s their playmaker.  

If Draymond Green plays like he should, the Warriors are a better team than Toronto, with or without Kevin Durant. 

And if Kevin Durant can come back and contribute, there is absolutely no reason the Warriors should lose this series.  

 

“Casey at the Bat” 

Bringing this up actually goes against the point I’m trying to make. But in my opinion, “Casey at the Bat” got it all wrong.

“Casey at the Bat” used to drive me nuts as a kid.  He was the best hitter.  The game was on the line.  Why did he just stand there and look at strikes one and two?  Why did he wait until an 0-2 count to finally swing? 

In my estimation, Casey should have hit the game winning home run.  Every time I listened to the poem, I expected him to finally come through. Obviously, he never did.  But he should have!  I insist on that to this day.

That’s the genius of the poem.  It sets it up like he will come through.  You have hope every time.  You never stop believing in Casey.  You never stop believing in the champ.  That is, until it’s over.

That’s how it is for me with this Warriors team.  They’re the champs.  I’m used to seeing them win.  

I’ve seen them come back from down 3-1.  They did it to Kevin Durant’s Oklahoma City team in the 2016 conference finals. How could you not expect them to do it again?

“Casey at the Bat” should be a warning for me to take a hint and admit that the Warriors are doomed. 

But I say, “Not so fast.”  It’s an 0-2 count. They’ve been bored to tears up to this point. Perhaps they’ve been a bit overconfident. But it’s not over yet and my money’s on Casey.  Warriors in 7.  It’s up to the Raptors to prove me wrong.